Chess Elo forecast

A static, reproducible chess ratings/backtest pipeline built from completed real Lichess rated games.

Completed games

20,000

2,077 players · 2012-12-31 through 2013-01-08

Holdout log loss

0.9780

Brier 0.1929 · last 4,000 games from 2013-01-06

Holdout exact-outcome accuracy

60.4%

K=40, colour=35, draw ν=0.8

Most recent scored games · historical walk-forward probabilities

2013-01-08

lk-lk vs Sattip 1–0 · classical

W 42.1% · D 28.3% · B 29.7%

2013-01-08

pikaron vs vaacshes 1–0 · blitz

W 58.9% · D 24.8% · B 16.3%

2013-01-08

SAIRAM vs amirmechanic83 1–0 · classical

W 16.2% · D 24.7% · B 59.1%

2013-01-08

Fisher62 vs DreamerKrsk 1–0 · classical

W 45.5% · D 27.9% · B 26.6%

2013-01-08

rodrigodbgt vs marina1984 0–1 · blitz

W 21.9% · D 26.8% · B 51.3%

2013-01-08

lk-lk vs tolik_mmm 1–0 · classical

W 39.5% · D 28.5% · B 32.0%

2013-01-08

adsl vs arun 0–1 · classical

W 41.1% · D 28.4% · B 30.6%

2013-01-08

sook vs kloun 0–1 · classical

W 24.9% · D 27.5% · B 47.6%

This page shows historical backtest probabilities only. Forward pairing ingest is not yet wired, so no future-game picks are displayed.

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